The Death of Birth — Our Dismal Fertility Rates

As is the case in many developing countries, the fertility rate in Brazil has seen a dramatic collapse over the last several decades. According to researchers at the London-based Centre for Economic Policy Research (CEPR), soap operas are at least partly to blame. One of the study’s authors, Eliana La Ferrara of the CEPR and Italy’s Bocconi University, states that the influence of grade-B soaps is “sizeable but not huge.” Such television programs portray families with very few children.

Brazil’s fertility rate (FR) has fallen from 6.3 children per woman in 1960 to 2.3 in 2003. According to the CIA’s World Factbook, the nation’s FR will reach a new low of 1.86 this year. A dramatic drop in birth rates has taken place throughout much of Latin America and may portend trouble for nations like the United States that depend on immigration from developing Latin American countries to support continued growth.

The phenomenon may have a silver lining, however. The soaps, especially those from the commercial network Globo, seem to have the greatest influence on poor women, who are least able to provide for a large number of children.

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This last week has seen a plethora of news about male birth control (MBC). A hormonal contraceptive, composed of testosterone and progestin — a synthetic form of progesterone, was reported in the Journal of Clinical Endocrinology & Metabolism. The pill, taken once a day, reportedly has a 98% efficacy, the same as female birth control pills. In addition, the effect is easily reversed.There is little certainty regarding possible side effects, due to a lack of long term studies. Early results, however, indicate that they may be minor (weight gain, for instance). An injectable form may be available in the US next year.Regarding its reliability, the article’s lead author, Peter Y. Liu, associate professor at the University of Sydney, states “The rate of suppression is comparable to that achieved after a vasectomy.”

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 Very much a developing country, despite its recent economic advances, China faces the combined challenges of massive population and rapid aging. The nation’s one-child policy, often eased in individual cases, has led to a below-replacement fertility rate of 1.75. Nevertheless, the population continues to rise as it ages.

According to Professor Wang Feng, professor of sociology and demography at the University of California, Irvine, China’s over-60 cohort will burgeon from 140 million to 200 million by 2015, an increase of 43% in a mere 7 years. He also projects that, by 2030, the number will reach 300 million, roughly today’s population of the United States, the world’s third most populous nation. In the past, the elderly have relied on their children for support. Unfortunately, they will soon need the support of children that they never had — the Chinese government estimates that the one-child policy has reduced birth totals by 400 million.

Recent reports out of Beijing have given mixed impressions regarding the future of the one-child policy. Earlier this week, however, the head of the National Population and Family Planning Commission stated that the standing policy will remain in force for at least another decade. Estimates of the time scale vary, but it is clear that sometime during the next decade, a large number of women will enter their prime child-bearing years. Once they have aged a bit more, national fertility rates are expected to plummet. As shown in the following graph, in 2000 a large number of females were in the 10 to 14 age group. This year they range from 18 to 22 and in 2015 this group will be 25 to 29 years old — prime childbearing years. Far smaller numbers of women will follow.

China has wedged itself between the proverbial rock and hard place. The nation’s developing infrastructure struggles to support the country’s current numbers, yet low fertility rates have led to an old population with relatively few young workers to depend on.

The situation in China should give warning to the United States, whose population continues to grow at a high rate, largely because of immigration. The US would do well to adjust its system of transfer programs before it becomes necessary to drastically reduce immigration and fertility rates.

The elderly will continue to depend on the young, yet no piece of land can support an infinite population.

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“We can’t destroy the inequities between men and women until we destroy marriage.” — Robin Morgan, former Ms Magazine editor.

“If women are to effect a significant amelioration in their condition, it seems obvious that they must refuse to marry.” — Germain Greer, renowned feminist.

Anyone who was around during the 1960s and -70s knows that feminism had a decided anti-marriage bent. The movement depicted the traditional family as a system in which men oppressed women and children; never mind the demanding and sometimes life destroying sacrifices that husbands and fathers made to provide for those whom they allegedly oppressed.

Since that time, co-habitation, out of wedlock childbearing, and skyrocketed divorce rates have become hallmarks of our culture. At the same time, fertility rates have fallen drastically from the highs achieved during the formation of the baby boom generation – those born from 1946 through 1964.

It might seem obvious that married couples, on average, have more children than unmarried couples or single women. Assumptions, however, can be far from accurate, so it’s worth seeing the extent to which research supports the contention. The following graphs are based on data from the US Census Bureau 2004 “Fertility of American Women: Current Population Survey – June 2004.”

All races, ages 15 to 44: Percent by number of children. “Married” indicates women who have ever been married. “Unmarried” indicates women who have never married.

One set of values alone emphasizes the extreme difference in fertility rates between ever married and never married women. Nearly 80% of women who have never married have no children. Of those women who have ever married, less than 20% have never had a child. The category of no children is the only group in which never married women dominate.

In the categories of one, two, three, or more children, married women dominate. The following graphs show that this is true across racial demographic groups.

Non-Hispanic Whites, ages 15 to 44: Percent by number of children. “Married” indicates women who have ever been married. “Unmarried” indicates women who have never married.

Blacks, ages 15 to 44: Percent by number of children. “Married” indicates women who have ever been married. “Unmarried” indicates women who have never married.

Asians, ages 15 to 44: Percent by number of children. “Married” indicates women who have ever been married. “Unmarried” indicates women who have never married.

Hispanics, ages 15 to 44: Percent by number of children. “Married” indicates women who have ever married. “Unmarried” indicates women who have never married.

In their 2002 report, “Why Men Won’t Commit,” Barbara Dafoe Whitehead and David Popenoe of the State University of New Jersey, Rutgers, reported ten major reasons that men are turning away from marriage in what has come to be known as the “Marriage Strike.” These reasons include:
1.“They can get sex without marriage more easily than in times past.”
2.“They can enjoy the benefits of having a wife by cohabiting rather than marrying.”
3.“They want to avoid divorce and its financial risks.”

Based on my personal experience discussing this matter with young men, it should be added that many men avoid marriage and fatherhood due to a fear of losing contact with their children after divorce. Recent reports by the Census Bureau show that households composed of married couples have fallen into the minority (49.7%).

With men now responding to, among other things, high divorce rates and what they perceive as extreme, anti-male bias in family courts, some people, at least, are starting to get full measure of what they have sought for years – the destruction of traditional marriage.

At the same time, society has experienced a dangerous collapse of fertility rates.

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