March 24, 2008
The Coming Acceleration of Population Aging
Wolfgang Lutz is a highly respected demographer specializing in the sub-field of fertility rates. With co-authors Warren Sanderson and Sergei Scherbov he has published an article in Nature magazine (vol. 451, pp. 716-719, February 7, 2008). The piece, titled “The coming acceleration of global population aging, examines the aging that will occur worldwide over the next several decades as a result of reduced fertility rates and increased life expectancies.
They conclude that the speed of aging will increase over the next several decades and then being to decrease by mid-century. This does not mean, however, that the aging will cease. In fact, their research indicates that populations will continue to get older throughout the century. They predict that globally the average human age will rise from 26.6 in 2000 to 37.3 in 2050. By 2100 they expect the average age to have reached 45.6 years-of-age “when it is not adjusted for longevity increase.” They also predict an 88% probability that the world’s population will stop growing some time during this century.
An abstract of the Nature paper can be found here, along with the opportunity to purchase the entire report.
The International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis has published an interview with Lutz that can be read here.
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